BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

前瞻隐含高点 (未实现·≥50%触及)

无 · 难创新高

前瞻隐含低点 (未实现·≥50%触及)

无 · 不易再探底

P(≥$100K)

21.5%

P(≥$150K)

2.1%

P(≥$200K)

0.9%

P(≤$50K)

7.0%

P(≤$40K)

3.1%

总成交量

$71.0M

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

0.1%

$3.0M

$500K

0.2%

$1.7M

$250K

0.5%

$5.6M

$200K

0.9%

$2.1M

$190K

1.1%

$821K

$180K

1.4%

$580K

$170K

1.6%

$480K

$160K

2.0%

$726K

$150K

2.1%

$1.3M

$140K

2.8%

$1.4M

$130K

3.1%

$2.0M

$120K

5.5%

$2.2M

$110K

9.5%

$2.0M

$100K

21.5%

$3.9M

$95K

36.5%

$978K

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$80K

已实现

$776K

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

$70K

已实现

$1.0M

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

$60K

已实现

$137K

$55K

9.5%

$6.9M

$50K

7.0%

$4.5M

$45K

5.0%

$8.7M

$40K

3.1%

$2.7M

$35K

2.1%

$3.5M

$30K

1.9%

$929K

$25K

1.1%

$1.5M

$20K

1.1%

$643K

$15K

0.7%

$5.1M

$10K

0.4%

$912K

$5K

0.5%

$847K