BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

1.4%

$1.7M

$500K

1.4%

$1.3M

$250K

1.9%

$5.2M

$200K

1.9%

$1.8M

$190K

1.9%

$644K

$180K

1.3%

$454K

$170K

2.8%

$331K

$160K

3.2%

$519K

$150K

3.9%

$965K

$140K

4.5%

$905K

$130K

4.5%

$1.0M

$120K

7.5%

$942K

$110K

11.5%

$1.1M

$100K

14.5%

$2.0M

$95K

17.5%

$18K

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

$80K

已实现

$776K

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

$70K

已实现

$44K

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$60K

已实现

$44K

$55K

72.5%

$3.9M

$50K

57.5%

$1.6M

$45K

41.5%

$3.1M

$40K

27.5%

$918K

$35K

17.5%

$2.4M

$30K

13.5%

$542K

$25K

8.5%

$928K

$20K

5.5%

$415K

$15K

4.0%

$4.8M

$10K

3.5%

$678K

$5K

2.6%

$664K