BTC 2026 价格概率分布 | ladderquant.com

前瞻隐含高点 (未实现·≥50%触及)

无 · 难创新高

前瞻隐含低点 (未实现·≥50%触及)

$55K

P(≥$100K)

8.5%

P(≥$150K)

2.6%

P(≥$200K)

2.1%

P(≤$50K)

36.5%

P(≤$40K)

15.5%

总成交量

$49.5M

▲ 上行概率 (2026年触及 ≥ 价格)

$1000K

0.8%

$2.1M

$500K

1.4%

$1.5M

$250K

1.9%

$5.4M

$200K

2.1%

$1.9M

$190K

2.2%

$713K

$180K

2.2%

$473K

$170K

2.5%

$352K

$160K

2.4%

$549K

$150K

2.6%

$1.0M

$140K

3.4%

$1.0M

$130K

3.6%

$1.1M

$120K

4.5%

$1.1M

$110K

6.5%

$1.2M

$100K

8.5%

$2.4M

$95K

10.5%

$121K

$90K

已实现

$23K

$85K

已实现

$12K

$80K

已实现

$776K

$75K

已实现

$1.1M

$70K

已实现

$44K

$65K

已实现

$1.5M

▼ 下行概率 (2026年跌至 ≤ 价格)

$60K

已实现

$137K

$55K

54.5%

$4.9M

$50K

36.5%

$2.6M

$45K

25.5%

$4.0M

$40K

15.5%

$1.5M

$35K

9.5%

$2.7M

$30K

7.5%

$693K

$25K

4.1%

$1.1M

$20K

4.4%

$506K

$15K

3.4%

$4.9M

$10K

2.5%

$831K

$5K

1.9%

$787K